In 2019, poultry will become the most consumed meat protein in the world. At a recent meeting of the International Council for Poultry Industry, delegates said that in 2019, the total production of pork in the world will decline so poultry will be able to overtake pork and become the most consumed meat in the world, writes “Agro-Center”.
Change is caused by the African swine fever virus, which spread across 3 continents and 15 countries. It is expected that production losses in 2019 will account for 14% of global pork supplies but may continue to grow.
“Losing pigs due to the ASF in China will cause great difficulties for the world’s protein markets. Poultry is a protein that wins,”
said Christina McCracken, a senior protein analyst at Rabobank.
The ASF outbreaks destroy pork production, mainly in the eastern hemisphere, but China, that accounts for growing almost half of all pigs in the world, suffers the most. Herds are suffering from diseases that lead to a 100 percent mortality rate for infected animals.
The disease, which had stayed in Russia and Eastern Europe for several years, was discovered in China in August 2018 and spread to Southeast Asia and Vietnam (the world’s fifth largest pork producer). Small outbreaks are also observed in the European Union.
“China produces 98% of its own pork so the forecasted 30% reduction in deliveries by the end of the year will lead to a reduction in global total protein deliveries in 2019,”
According to McCracken, the world will not be able to fill the deficit in the supply of meat proteins.
“It is expected that the import of all proteins (beef, poultry, and seafood) will have limited short-term effects. Prices for all proteins will grow,”
said the analyst.
Because of the losses caused by the ASF in China, the world will lack 10% of meat proteins, but China may increase domestic production of other proteins such as eggs, beef, seafood, and poultry.