14 million dairy farms will stop working by 2030 (expert opinion)

About 14 million dairy farms around the world will stop production by 2030. At the same time, global milk production is increasing, and promising participants appear on the milk market, writes “Agro-Center”.

By 2030, global milk production is expected to grow by an average of 35% worldwide in order to meet the needs of the population. This was stated in an article by an independent journalist Chris McCallow at dairyglobal.net. In his opinion, milk production will increase by 304 million tons by 2030, and for one farm – by 54%.

It is anticipated that milk consumption will increase by about 16% per capita, while the average milk yield will increase by 23% (for one cow). All this will be done on fewer farms than there are today as it is expected that by 2030 the number of dairy farms will reduce to 104 million. This, in turn, will depend on demand and supply, as well as political decisions.

The expert says that milk production is no longer available only to large developed countries and smaller countries are now becoming potential players on the “world milk market”.

Dairy experts suggest that the three leading dairy exporters in the world – the European Union, New Zealand, and the United States – will remain in the leading position until 2030. However, during this period, we can expect surprises from those countries who seek to gain their share of the global dairy market.

“According to IFCN, the German research network for dairy products, South Asia, has the greatest potential for growth and increase in production by 64% during the 2017 – 2030 period. The next is Africa with a growth potential of 36%, followed by Latin America – 33%, Middle and the Middle East – 27% and North America – 26%. Western Europe has a growth potential of 14%. Post-Soviet countries also have significant development potential and will soon be able to compete with the current global players on the dairy market,”

says the expert in the article.

In 2017, the world dairy export market amounted to 27,500 million US dollars. The EU says it can satisfy “about 35% of world demand by 2030,” paying more attention to value-added products, such as organic products or products with protected geographical indications. The EU exports of cheese, butter, dry skimmed milk, whole milk powder, and whey powder are expected to increase by an average of approximately 330,000 tons of milk per year.

As for the EU market, it will take about 900,000 tons of additional milk per year to meet the demand for traditional dairy products, mainly cheese. It is expected that the consumption of liquid milk in the EU will continue to decline. Milk production in the EU should increase slightly from 2018 to 2030, by 0.8% per year on average. Production is estimated at 167 million tons in 2018 and should reach 182 million tons by 2030.